The Reggie Bush Sweepstakes
December 11, 2005 – 11:23 pmI got a chance to watch most of the Colts-Jaguars game today, and during half time, and then again during the post game shows, I heard many, many references to “the Reggie Bush sweepstakes”. Specifically, these references came when the talking heads were discussing the games between teams with poor records.
For those who don’t know, the team that finishes with the worst record at the end of the football season gets the first pick in the following year’s college draft. Reggie Bush is becoming the consensus favorite to be the first pick of next season’s draft. Thus, the team that finishes with the worst record this season can at least take solace in the fact that they will have the opportunity to draft Reggie Bush, if they so desire.
Several things strike me about this situation. I can’t remember a previous season in which there was such an established consensus regarding what any team with the first pick in the draft should do with it. The closest I can remember it coming to this is when Michael Vick was turning pro, and even then it wasn’t outright absurd that San Diego traded the first overall pick to stockpile more selections (selections that turned into Drew Brees and LaDanian Tomlinson).
I read somewhere today, and I have already forgot where, that the last two times that were like this were when John Elway and Barry Sanders were each drafted. I was a wee lad for those drafts, so I can’t really say. What I can say, though, is that I’m quite surprised how strong the consensus is that Reggie Bush is the pick for any team that is lucky enough to wind up with the first pick in the draft. I think the fans are getting set up for a huge disappointment.
Reggie Bush is a great player. Hands down. He’s fast. He’s agile. He’s strong. But, believe it or not, defenses in the NFL are a little faster, a little more agile, and a little stronger than college defenses. You think Reggie Bush is going to carry 50 times for 500 yards in the course of two games in the NFL? Yeah, right. And with how much money is guaranteed to these top picks, the team that drafts him will be making a serious commitment that could impact their ability to sign guys around him, guys that are necessary for him to perform as well as people expect.
The point? Well, there’s no point, really. Reggie Bush would be a great draft pick, but I think people should be well cautioned that he is not a savior that is going to carry a 2-14 team this season to a 12-4 record next season. And there are plenty of other prospects out there that might have a more immediate impact than Reggie will have. The NFL draft is a crapshoot. Regarding any given college player as a mortal lock to be a superstar at the next level is very often dangerous.
9 Responses to “The Reggie Bush Sweepstakes”
You know I wasn’t to say you are wrong but then went to http://nfl.com/draft/history/years/1999 and saw how many busts they there where in the first round, 1,3,5*(the book is still open on Ricky WIlliams),8,12,28,29. It was the year of the Quarterbacks and 3 of 5 are now out of football. In the NFL one player means nothing, ask Barry Sanders. He gave his soul to the Lions and he got nothing in return. Reggie Bush can’t save Houston, they need a new team, but The Jets or SF could turn their team around in 3 years with a play like that. Sure RB get beet up worse in the NFL but Warrick Dunn is still kicking and he is tiny. Jamal Anderson and Bo Jackson were big guys and they had career ending injuries. But I am surprised how unclear the #1 pick has been in years, even Manning had the Ryan Leaf debate, so you never know. Maybe Brady Quinn comes out #10 and make the Hall of Fame and Reggie is in and out of injuries after 6 years. But thats what makes it interesting. But I will say calling it the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes is very poor choice and the anouncers should be more classy.
By Pasqual on Dec 16, 2005 at 10:26 am
I think reggie bush will be the number one pick but if he goes to the 49ers or the texans he must realize those teams like bad lines now if he went to the raiders he would be in good shape because they have a good offensive line think about it lamont jordan just went over 1,000 yards for the raiders.
By mac on Dec 19, 2005 at 6:21 pm
Raiders??? Are you kidding me? The raiders dont have a chance for one thing and secondly they are terminally screwed simply because there the raiders. Having the worst leadership and fans in the nfl will never help them moving forward.
By Dan on Dec 31, 2005 at 8:41 pm
I don’t know if you can say any one out of that group of three teams (the Texans, the 49ers, and the Raiders) is in markedly better shape than the others. Maybe the Texans have the weakest offensive line, but their quarterback situation is the least murky.
I don’t think Reggie Bush can turn any of those three situations around single-handedly. The Barry Sanders analogy is a good one, because the Lions were never able to build a complete team during his tenure.
All three of those teams have gaping holes, and having a running back that can elude rushers in the backfield can only get you so far.
By jjk on Jan 3, 2006 at 8:43 am
Okay Reggie Bush will be best on the NY Jets. Two reasons he will get only 150 to 200 carries in his first two season a piece with the Jets because they have Curtis the Indestructible Martin okay. Second they are a good team thats QB went down and RB was hurt all year long so they would immediately feel the impact if they drafted Bush. Lets be seroius the Texans just gave there RB a 5 year extension worth 30 mill with a 5 mill signing bonus he is not going to texas. The Saints signed Duce to the biggest RB contract in the NFL and the Titans need OL help. The jets can pick him up he can learn from Curtis Martin who is a legend and in his third season can take 350 carries a season and gain 10 lbs of muscle to his frame hands down he needs to play with Gang Green
By Peter Garcia on Jan 4, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Does anyone think last night’s Rose Bowl changed Reggie Bush’s NFL draft status? Leinart’s? Young’s?
By jjk on Jan 5, 2006 at 9:48 am
raiders have BY FAR the best Fans in the League.
Dan, you either ignorant or biased to make such a statement. Without Al davis, the NFL would have never made it. You must not know NFL History. Google “NFL History” and then come back here.
The Raiders are one of the most winningest teams in NFL History. Every single decade they’ve been to the superbowl or have been in the conference title game.
By Carlos Mendez on Apr 4, 2006 at 8:41 am
I think Carlos is right. Consumer Reports did a fairly extensive evaluation back in October 2005 and deemed the Raiders to have “BY FAR the best Fans in the League”.
Obviously Carlos read the same issue.
By jjk on Apr 4, 2006 at 9:43 am
Raiders fans may be loyal or supportive, but I would never classify them as being the best, unless CR is talking about brawling…
By SF 49ers on Aug 2, 2006 at 9:59 am