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Vince Young Is Turning Pro

In what has already become old news, Vince Young is opting to enter the upcoming NFL draft .

I can’t say I’m surprised. Vince Young will never be looked upon more favorably by NFL scouts than he is right now. Staying in college for an extra year removes a year of earning power, and that missed year of earning power could end up costing several million dollars. Add in the fact that Vince has accomplished everything a college football player could hope to accomplish (with the exception of winning the Heisman trophy), and his decision makes sense.

How do I think Vince will fare in the pros? I don’t think he’ll perform quite as well as everyone else seems to expect he will. He was facing defenses in college that would gravitate back to the line of scrimmage as the play progressed in hopes of containing Vince’s running threat. As a result, Vince could loft passes to a wide-open receiver who could then turn and gain a few yards after the catch. Or he could run around a defensive line and make smaller, slower defensive players miss or bounce off of him. Obviously every passing play didn’t go like this, but Vince scared the defense enough to draw a whole lot more attention than really any other college quarterback did.

Why will that change in the pros? The defenses are much faster, and much stronger. Brian Urlacher will not bounce off of Vince Young like the USC defenders did. If Urlacher gets his hands on Vince in the open field, nine times out of ten Vince is going down. Also, Vince won’t be running around the defensive ends on a bee-line for the corner of the end zone in the pros. The linebackers are too fast. The outside linebacker will make it up to the line quickly enough to stop Vince for a gain of a couple of yards, and the secondary won’t have to pay an exorbitant amount of attention to his running ability.

Part of the reason I’m not as optimistic about Young’s future in the NFL is based on how Michael Vick has played. He has great feet, and he can throw one of the most beautiful spirals in the league when he wants to, but he doesn’t make great decisions when it comes to throwing. He’s been injured more than once as a result of taking punishing hits while trying to scramble for extra yards. He has had flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to put together a string of great performances to warrant the billing he received coming out of college (early).

I wish Vince all the success at the next level, though. I look forward to him proving my predictions wrong. It would really be something to see him dominate NFL defenses like he did college defenses. But it might take a little while for that to happen if he’s playing for the Saints or the Titans. Only time will tell.