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NFL Conference Championship Game Picks

With less than hour before the Broncos and Steelers kick off, I will go ahead and try a round of picks for today’s NFL conference championship games. As you might know, the winners of the two games today will play each other in the Super Bowl on February 5.

Like last time, I grabbed the betting line information from FootballLOCKS.com.

Game One
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-3); 41 total

Like a lot of other people, I thought the New England Patriots basically handed the game to the Denver Broncos last week. Without the very questionable pass interference call, Denver likely would not have scored their first touchdown when they did. Add to that a handful of uncharacteristic Patriots miscues, and the game was Denver’s for the taking. The Broncos’ offense didn’t look like world-beaters, and their defense let the Patriots move quite a bit on them before creating turnovers.

The Steelers, on the other hand, dominated the Colts. I think the Steelers have the better defense, and I think they will effectively be able to play keep away from the Broncos. The line is fairly low on this one as it is, but I think this game will be even lower scoring than the above total. I’ll take the Steelers, getting three points, and the under. My prediction: Steelers 21, Broncos 16.

Game Two
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5); 43.5 total

This game is a tough one for me to call. I really don’t know which way to go. The fact that the Panthers hung 29 on the Bears is very impressive. But, the Seahawks were able to score on that vaunted Redskins defense without the league’s MVP, running back Shaun Alexander. I think that speaks to how multi-faceted the Seahawks offense really is.

I don’t like to pick against a hot team, and the Panthers are the hotter team right now. But, they have suffered a couple of key injuries, with running back DeShaun Foster having broken his ankle and defensive end Julius Peppers having a banged up shoulder. It’s hard to measure how good the Seahawks defense is, because they were playing an entirely inept offensive team in the Washington Redskins last week. The Carolina defense is pretty good, but giving up 21 points to a Bears offense that would struggle getting double digits isn’t a great sign.

I don’t know; I’m lost on this one. I’ve changed my mind a few times just while writing this little summary. I’ll go ahead and take the Panthers, getting three and a half points, and the over. My prediction: Panthers 27, Seahawks 24.