Don’t Know Who To Pick in the Finals
June 7, 2006 – 4:34 pmI really don’t know who to pick in the NBA Finals. Game one tips off tomorrow night, and I’m on the fence. Well, I’m kind of on the fence. I’m going to pick Dallas in six, but by no means would I be the least bit surprised if Miami wins this series.
My confidence in the Mavericks stems in large part from their defeat of the San Antonio Spurs. When you beat the defending champs, you earn some credibility. And it was clear over the course of that series that the Mavericks were the superior team. The Mavs struggled more with Phoenix than I had anticipated, but the Suns were a pesky team. If the Suns had stretched the Mavs to game seven, I might not be as confident with my pick right now.
The Heat just dismissed the other participant in last year’s Finals, the Detroit Pistons. And they did it in as emphatic a fashion as one could expect over a team as good as the Pistons. Still, there seems to be too many times when Dwyane Wade is shut down for three quarters or so without his teammates picking him up. I have greater confidence in the Mavs’ third through fifth starters than I do the Heat’s, and I think the Mavs’ bench is demonstrably better than the Heat’s bench.
I just don’t know how I expect Shaq to perform. He’s old, even though he’s shown flashes of his dominant performances circa five years ago. When 21 points and 10 rebounds is considered a good night for Shaq, I have to think the Mavs are going to win. Five years ago, you were going to get 30 and 15 from Shaq. I just don’t know if he can average anything like that over the course of this year’s Finals.
Add in the fact that Dirk is going to go nuts, and I have to say the Mavs in six. I have less of a rooting interest in this Finals than I have had in many years. Whether it was rooting for the Spurs, against the Lakers, against the Bulls, or for the Rockets, I always seemed to have some clear idea of who I wanted to win. This year is not like that. A little strange, to be honest.