\jeff{krimmel}

Lakers Celtics Prediction

The NBA Finals start tomorrow evening, featuring the Los Angeles Lakers versus the Boston Celtics. I should start by saying I have practically zero rooting interest in this series. I have lived in Los Angeles for about five years now, and I have developed zero affection for the Lakers. When I do root for a Los Angeles basketball team, I root for the Clippers to beat the Lakers.

I could write a book about how the folks in Los Angeles root for sports teams. It’s a bizarre endeavor. Fair weather doesn’t begin to describe the relationship between fans and teams in this town. Regardless, I have had an up close and personal look at the Lakers for the past five years. I feel comfortable offering my prediction of how the Finals will go down, and then I will feel comfortable eating crow when my predictions go to hell.

As Bill Simmons said in his most recent chat on ESPN.com:

I have been writing this forever - in a series with 2 relatively equal teams, the team with the dominant player wins. That’s held in every Finals for the last 30 years except for 2004.

That’s really tough to argue against. And it’s not like there’s a close second on the list of most dominant players in this series. In all seriousness, who is second after Kobe Bryant? Kevin Garnett? I don’t think so. Maybe Paul Pierce. But it could just as easily be Lamar Odom when he’s hot. It doesn’t really matter, though. Kobe is the most dominant player in the series, and there isn’t a hint of a debate to be had.

How are the Celtics going to stop Kobe? Usually I try to introduce some nuance in my predictions, but I can’t get past this question. I have watched most of the Lakers’ playoff games this season, and the three or four times I thought Kobe finally decided the game was over, he slammed the door and the Lakers won the game. It seems like he can get to the basket at will. He sinks jumpers with a hand in his face like it’s pregame.

I think the Celtics will get a couple of games, but I don’t see how this series doesn’t end in Bostin with a Lakers game 6 victory. I’ll say the Celtics take games two and five. Kevin Garnett will have some nice moments, but Kobe will slam the door and carry the Lakers to the championship.